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Gramarye

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  1. Gramarye

    The Trump Presidency

    I'm in the process of rolling over a 401k from a previous employer. Therefore, I was forced to liquidate the entire thing more than a week ago because they refused to do an in-kind trustee-to-trustee transfer. I fumed at the bureaucracy, and it's taken a lot of phone calls because different arms of the firm that handles the old 401k can't see each other's records. Then again, there are historically worse periods to have been forced out of the market into all cash by bureaucratic red tape.
  2. Is it possible that a shipping container would have fewer ongoing maintenance issues than one with wooden walls and vinyl siding?
  3. Gramarye

    Voting

    Aaron Burr respectfully dissents.
  4. Gramarye

    The Democratic Party

    None of that means I'm wrong, sorry. Repeating that I'm wrong doesn't make me any less right than I was the first time. I never said that a compact map couldn't also be more competitive than the current one. I said that the rules would be written differently for competitive districts and compact districts, and therefore people can agree that the rules should be different but disagree about what they should be. What you just posted actually confirms that rather than contradicting it.
  5. Gramarye

    Gun Rights

    Tempted to put this on an Ohio politics thread, but I think it belongs here more: https://www.dispatch.com/news/20181113/ohio-house-set-to-approve-stand-your-ground-gun-bill Ohio House set to approve stand-your-ground gun bill The Ohio House on Wednesday is expected to approve a controversial stand-your-ground bill that eliminates a “duty to retreat” when facing a threat before utilizing deadly force. ... The bill also would get rid of current requirements that K-12 schools, police stations, courthouses, airports and other public locations post signs declaring themselves as gun-free zones. And, it would reduce certain concealed handgun violations to minor misdemeanors and further block local governments, such as recent attempts by Columbus, from passing gun-related ordinances. ============================================= Bill page at OH legislature site: https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/legislation-summary?id=GA132-HB-228 The most notable of those "certain concealed handgun violations" reduced to minor misdemeanors include, well, virtually all of them without any aggravating circumstances (e.g., failing to disclose a concealed weapon to a law enforcement officer when stopped for any other purpose by that officer, or carrying at certain specified locations, etc.). Generic, run-of-the-mill unlicensed carry of a handgun (but not other kinds of weapons) would be reduced to a minor misdemeanor, which carries a maximum punishment of no incarceration and a $150 fine. With respect to handguns, Ohio would become one step away from a constitutional carry state. That said, I think the structure of the proposal suggest lobbyist influence more than thematic consistency. Because other concealed weapons would remain first-degree misdemeanors. As I read it, I think that would even include something like a tactical knife. In other words, a concealed knife could get you 180 days in jail and a $1000 fine. A concealed unlicensed handgun would max out at $150 (and of course a concealed licensed handgun would be completely legal). Maybe there's some other saving provision in the law elsewhere, either in the proposal or already on the books, that would yield a different result. But I don't see it in the basic text of the original or proposed amended concealed weapons law.
  6. Gramarye

    Voting

    http://thefederalist.com/2018/11/09/broward-county-embarrassment-potential-stolen-florida-election-real/ http://thefederalist.com/2018/11/09/yes-democrats-trying-steal-election-florida/ This is the kind of thing that you don't see as evidence of voter fraud because you've put your conclusion first and determined that there will be nothing that you will allow your mind to interpret as evidence to the contrary. It's not direct, caught-red-handed voter fraud. It's just an environment that makes voter fraud far easier and is expressly contrary to Florida election law, particularly the part about election officials legally creating ballots to replace damaged ones without the required witness requirements and refusing to even release the required tally of how many ballots remain to be counted. At least per the Scott campaign's calculations on election night when Scott claimed victory, the current numbers coming out of Broward County are mathematically impossible--or at least a tremendous statistical outlier in terms of number of post-election ballots being counted (provisional ballots, damaged ballots replaced through the damaged-ballot-replacement process, etc.). The fact that the county election supervisor has been in legal hot water for her management of elections in the past is not particularly comforting, either.
  7. Gramarye

    The Trump Presidency

    Firing Mueller Would Be a Disaster for Trump https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/firing-mueller-would-be-a-disaster-for-trump/ If acting attorney general Matthew Whitaker fires Robert Mueller, it wouldn’t just trigger an immediate political crisis — it would represent one of the most bone-headed, counterproductive political moves in recent history. Why? Let me count the ways.
  8. Gramarye

    Connecticut Western Reserve

    Speaking of historical dining spaces in the Western Reserve with suggestive names and histories touching on the Underground Railroad, there's also the Spread Eagle Tavern, built in 1837, in Hanover.
  9. Gramarye

    The Democratic Party

    That's always a coalition-splitting issue among anti-gerrymandering advocates. Even people who agree that gerrymandering is wrong can have wildly different ideas about the priorities of the system that should replace it. Geographic compactness will result in uncompetitive districts more often than if you actively prioritize competitive districts. A big district of Medina to Peninsula through Sharon and Bath Townships might be a neat package but will almost certainly go Republican. If you put all of Cleveland proper into one district, of course, it almost doesn't matter where you find the other few hundred thousand people to fill out the district, that district is going Democratic. If you actively prioritize competitive districts, you're going to often have districts as aesthetically hideous as existing gerrymandered ones, because you have to have "tentacles" reaching into or out of urban centers. The operating assumption here assumes that Republicans remain a predominantly rural and Democrats remain a predominantly urban constituency, of course. Those line-drawing factors could change considerably if you actually got more urban conservatives and more rural Democrats, of course.
  10. Gramarye

    Voting

    Arizona and Florida Senate races, particularly Arizona, both look potentially poised to flip from Republican to Democratic following recounts and other post-election activities. Same with the Florida governor's race, which could have an even larger national impact in 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/judge-refuses-to-limit-arizona-vote-count-sets-hearing/2018/11/08/62ebe7b0-e3be-11e8-ba30-a7ded04d8fac_story.html?utm_term=.ca665f5af1ba https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-09/tight-florida-senate-race-in-turmoil-with-late-votes-and-lawsuit https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/08/us/florida-recount-nelson-scott-desantis-gillum.html https://www.npr.org/2018/11/07/665387791/results-in-key-florida-senate-race-are-still-on-hold Needless to say, this is not going to do anything to calm endemic Republican suspicions of voter fraud (it seems to be a perennial pattern that late-breaking votes break Democratic, though the innocuous explanation for that is that they come from large urban counties where polling infrastructure is simply more complicated to manage) or Democratic cries of voter suppression. Prepare yourselves for a raft of "stolen election" stories from all your favorite partisan press outlets.
  11. Gramarye

    The Trump Presidency

    Here's the thing. If the relevant House committees are disciplined about it, they don't need to investigate the hamstringing of the investigation. They can go straight to investigating the underlying subject matter (and many other subjects besides). However, the odds are that they have no such discipline, because their incentives are very different and their organization is very different. Bob Mueller, himself a Republican but very much an establishment warrior with friends on both sides of the aisle in the legal field, has run an astoundingly leak-proof and disciplined ship, a nearly impossible feat in modern Washington. No grandstanding, no unauthorized media interviews, really not even anything in the way of leaks or "on background" comments. This is actually one way I expect Trump to fight the Democrats in the myriad committees that will be formed to investigate all the various things the Democrats are going to want to investigate that the Republicans wouldn't consider over the past two years. He doesn't want them to depoliticize it, he wants them to hyper-politicize it, and if there's one thing he's good at--against everyone but Bob Mueller, apparently--it's goading his opposition into overstepping. The Democratic House is going to give him hell, but it's also going to give him something to fight again. We'll see how it shakes out.
  12. Gramarye

    Connecticut Western Reserve

    I read that whole article and I still have no idea what the author even wants. He says he wants more than "quotidian accomplishments" like fixing streets from municipal leaders in northeast Ohio, particularly Cleveland (as if fixing streets on the shores of Lake Erie is an easy task), but doesn't say what that's supposed to mean. He says staunch progressives need to show up at city council meetings to "hold our leaders accountable" without saying, accountable for what? He cites Piketty, but doesn't draw any real connection between that theory and urban planning, urban policy, etc. The doom and gloom is not just vague, it doesn't appear warranted. Cleveland is undergoing an impressive urban growth trend that seems to be fairly durable. It isn't limited to just the downtown, either. Many neighborhoods have seen impressive gains over the past 5-10 years.
  13. Gramarye

    SCOTUS

    E Rocc: I doubt that. First, I don't think Ginsburg is actually going to be replaced anytime soon, unless these broken ribs lead to follow-on complications that make functioning much more difficult. However, Trump has been very consistent in delivering strong constitutionalist judges regardless of his own thoughts (which are half-formed at best) on constitutional law and legal theory. I think there's a very good chance he pulls the trigger on Amy Coney Barrett if he is still in office and still has a solid Senate majority when the next seat opens (regardless of whether it's RBG's). If not, it will still be someone from the FedSoc-vetted list, maybe Hardiman (who people think has a stealth lobbyist in Trump's very low-profile sister).
  14. Gramarye

    SCOTUS

    More links on that: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/08/us/politics/ruth-bader-ginsburg-hospitalized.html https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/415677-ginsburg-hospitalized-after-fall From the NYT, a fair reminder that she actually returned to work shortly after breaking 2 ribs in 2012, though the difference between being 79 and 85 could still make this a rougher convalescence for her. She also returned to weeks 3 weeks after a (successful) surgery on cancer. The NYT also warns about the risk of a punctured lung, but I have to assume that the risk of that was almost all up front (i.e., right after the fall) and has basically passed at this point. IANAD, though, so obviously don't take my random pontifications on the subject of medicine on the Internet as anything other than they are. Maybe there are other forumers who know more about the long-term risks from broken ribs. Glad to say I've never personally experienced it [knock on wood with gavel].
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