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Hootenany

One World Trade Center 1,776'
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  1. ^I wouldn't use homewrecker either to describe the lesser of two evils in the relationship described above. Sure, it takes two to tango, but the term "mistress" in a way stigmatizes the female half of a consensual sexual relationship when it's the male counterpart that's cheating on their spouse. At least that's my perspective. Perhaps I'm being overly sensitive here, but I don't think the AP is attempting to morally sanitize affairs. Instead I see them attempting to place the majority of the blame where it belongs - with the one who is actually cheating on their spouse.
  2. ^What do we call a man that is in a long-term sexual relationship with, and financially supported by, a women who is married to someone else? Just curious.
  3. "Oh, you're talking about the guy that was in charge of our vaccine research for this pandemic that we're 3 months into? Yeah, never heard of him. Has he been on Fox News? No? Then how the hell am I supposed to know who he is?" - Donald John Trump probably.
  4. Is there any country in the world that hates China more than Taiwan? Seriously... what a terrible example.
  5. I agree with most of your points with this one exception. The 4.8% drop in March was during an effective 2 week (maybe 3 max) period of reduced economic activity. Most sports cancellations and bar closures started in mid-March and the stay at home orders didn't really start until the last full week of March. Most of the country has been in lock down for the full month of April and I simply don't see the rapid bounce back post-lock down that some expect. I'd love to be wrong, but based on the Q1 numbers it appears that Q2 is going to be shockingly brutal. I think the best we can hope for is -10%. Of course the stock market doesn't really care about today (until it does ) and it's trying to gauge the value of these companies long term. I get that. But I don't think we understand the long term impact this is going to have on the economy and I assumed that uncertainty would drive the market lower. Of course I'm happy to admit that so far I've been wrong and I will never truly understand the stock market which is why I buy total market index funds on a regular schedule and let it ride.
  6. Is there any evidence that this is a likely scenario? The impact on travel, tourism, and general entertainment / service sector spending will last much longer than 6 months. The airlines are talking about a 2-3 year recovery and a seismic shift in the way they do business going forward. They can't be the only ones. We're already starting to see long term workforce reductions at Boeing, GE, and Spirit Aerosystems. And if business travel doesn't rebound quickly, which it won't (my company (Fortune 500 global manufacturing) has already restricted business travel for the entire year), I don't see how we avoid significant hotel and restaurant closings in major business centers. Are we also not concerned about how this pandemic could accelerate the work from home movement thereby decimating office rents and building values? Honestly guys, are we just riding high on the government bailouts and hoping that this will all blow over within 2 months? GDP shrank by 4.8% in Q1 and it will be much worse in Q2. The stock market is massively over valued right now...
  7. I agree with this. It obviously depends on the industry you're in but supply chain continuity hasn't been an issue to date in Aerospace. The bigger problem is the dramatic drop in demand. Our factories aren't closing because of the virus as much as they're closing because they don't have any demand right now. And I think it's going to take 2-3 years minimum to recover. This is the slow moving economic train wreck that I don't think the common person understands. Even if we quickly "reopen" the economy it doesn't mean people are going to start travelling, going to movies, and eating out again right away. The economic pain from this pandemic is going to be prolonged and right when you think we're just about out of it you'll hear about some major corporation that just ran out of cash and had to lay off tens of thousands of employees. And when the economy does start rolling again we'll be facing a federal budget crisis which could lead to significant cuts in spending and increased taxes which will slow economic growth.
  8. ^We all knew this was coming right? No surprises here as far as I'm concerned. And if you thought March was bad wait until you see the April numbers...
  9. I'm more pessimistic than most about this economy I think and it's probably because I work in aerospace which is taking it on the chin right now. But I honestly believe that this recession is going to be deep and long. Aerospace employs something like 2.5 million people in the US at wages that are well above median and it also accounts for approximately 20% of US manufacturing. In Ohio the aerospace sector accounts for 10% of our exports. This industry is at a standstill right now. I've never seen anything like it. If we don't begin to see some relief by the end of May it could get really ugly. What do you do with thousands of highly skilled engineers, scientists, technicians, pilots, etc. while waiting for the industry to rebound (which could take years)? Massive military programs? The larger problem in my opinion is that our economy is so driven by the consumer that we're exceptionally sensitive to pandemics like this. Live by the consumer, die by the consumer.
  10. My best guess is that 14K is the floor, but there's really no telling due to the unprecedented nature of COVID-19 in modern times. My general plan is to start feathering in (in total market mutual funds or ETF's obviously) at 18K and I'll ride it down to the bottom or until I run out of money.
  11. ^Just do it like Oregon and send everyone a mail in ballot. Problem solved.
  12. This is literally my path to the Democratic party as well. The reaction to Obama's election by my friends, family, and the general public was... telling. I couldn't unsee it and I haven't viewed the Republican party the same since.
  13. Yikes. No offense, but that's a really bad quiz. I mean... what even is this question? "A significant advantage of a one-party state is that it avoids all the arguments that delay progress in a democratic political system." Sure... I agree that would be an advantage of a one party system, but I'm not saying I want it. EDIT - I'm basically Gandhi according to this quiz so... you're welcome.
  14. So much to say on this debate. 1) Bernie isn't the nominee yet so maybe everyone should chill 2) More than half of the Democratic party voters are NOT voting for Bernie Sanders at least up to this point. That should tell you that many Democratic voters (like myself) have reservations about Bernie's electability. I supported Bernie in 2016, but the political landscape has changed and I'm shifting my support toward more moderate candidates. 3) Many Democrats feel that nominating a centrist candidate in 2016 is exactly why Trump won and some of the polling data supports this assertion. They feel that nominating Bernie Sanders in 2020 is a reasonable response to an important lesson learned 4 years ago. 4) Make no mistake about it. In terms of moral authority / character and values Bernie is light years ahead of Trump. Just because you don't agree with his ideology or policy positions doesn't make him immoral. Cheating on your wife with a porn star, paying her to keep quiet, and then lying about it... that makes you immoral. 5) I don't buy the hypothesis that the center (reasonable Americans) decides the election. We are so shockingly polarized that I don't think there is a middle right now. It's all about turnout and Bernie would do more to turn out the Democratic base than any other candidate on the stage. There's no question about that. The only question is how many centrist voters would jump ship and decided to vote for Trump over Sanders. My guess is that you might see a lot of centrists sit out the election, but most people have made up their mind one way or another on Trump and I don't see a Bernie nomination as pushing too many people back into the Trump camp.
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